End of NICE decade is rude shock for investors:James Saft

The demise of the NICE decade of low inflation and steady growth, mourned by Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, means tough times are ahead for most financial assets.

Calling it the "most difficult challenge yet" for Britain's 11-year-old Monetary Policy Committee, King last week declared the decade of non-inflationary consistent expansion (NICE) over and done, as tight credit and rising inflation force a rebalancing from consumption and borrowing to production and savings.

That is bad news for King and Britain, as the bank will have little freedom to ease the economy's transition by lowering interest rates.

But it will be bad news for financial markets as well, and not just in Britain. Inflation and economic growth will be choppier and less predictable, and so therefore will be company profits.

And if there is one thing investors hate, quite rightly, it is unpredictability. They will react, almost mechanically, to this new volatility by demanding an extra risk premium for holding stocks and bonds.

That extra premium implies, all other things being equal, lower prices for the same earnings power in a stock or a bond.

"We are at the start of the decade of great instability for both real economies and asset markets," said Lena Komileva, an economist and strategist at brokerage Tullett Prebon in London.

"At a time when the cost of finance is decided in asset markets, outside the control of central banks, increased macroeconomic instability and rising asset price volatility as a result will compound the effects of the credit crunch.

"With cheap leverage no longer available, an adverse macroeconomic environment will make the correction of asset valuations in line with real fundamentals that much more painful."

The NICE decade is a manifestation of the broader phenomenon that economists have dubbed the Great Moderation.

Since the 1980s the economies of the West, led by the United States, have enjoyed fewer and less severe downturns, a period characterized above all by less volatility in the economy both in terms of growth and inflation.

There has been a lot of debate about what caused such an extended period of predictability, but what is clear is that the benefits have been huge. It has made it easier for governments, companies and individuals to plan their investment and consumption.

It has also probably contributed to a fall in savings in the English speaking economies, as rainy days have been few and far between.

All that seems to be changing.

THE HIGH VALUE OF PREDICTABILITY

If the Great Moderation is on the way out, investors will simply have to get used to more volatility.

To get a sense of how important this is, look at the premium investors paid for General Electric shares during its period of steady earnings expansion. Or conversely, look at the very low multiple of earnings shareholders are willing to pay to hold investment banking shares, which historically experience huge volatility in earnings.

And though Britain has gone longer without a recession, there is no doubt that the United States has also benefited from low and stable inflation and is now seeing rising inflationary pressure.

More than 20 percent of Britons polled in a survey by the Bank of England and GFK expect inflation to rise by five percent or more in the next year.

In the United States, the Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment, released on Friday, showed that median year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 5.2 percent in May from 4.8 percent in April, the highest since the dark days of February 1982, when inflation was raging and the Great Moderation just a gleam in Paul Volcker's eye.

The latest bout of inflation is being caused by skyrocketing prices for agricultural commodities and energy. And whereas emerging markets like China were only one or two years ago supplying disinflation to the west through competition and cheap manufactured goods, these countries are now themselves in the grip of rising wages as well as commodity prices, making them a source of inflation.

Russell Jones, a fixed income strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in London, thinks that rising volatility won't just hit asset prices across the board.

"Volatility also heightens risk aversion as well," he said. "People are frightened off by volatility and they will keep their money in less risky asset."

Jones thinks Britain faces a period he characterizes as "evil," for Exacting period of Volatile Inflation and Low growth.

Quite possibly it won't be that bad, but two things are reasonably sure: central banks will not have the same freedom to lower rates they have used in the past to dampen economic volatility, and investors will have to grapple with the costs.

At the time of publication James Saft did not own any direct investments in securities mentioned in this article. He may be an owner indirectly as an investor in a fund.

Investors eye Yahoo's alternatives to Microsoft

Yahoo Inc faced growing pressure on Sunday to find an alternative strategy to Microsoft Corp's $47.5 billion takeover offer after the software maker walked away over a disagreement on price.

Yahoo shares could fall by more than 30 percent on Monday over the breakdown of talks, but that drop could be softened if Wall Street believes Yahoo Chief Executive Jerry Yang has another strategy up his sleeve, analysts said.

Yahoo is likely to push for an advertising partnership with Web search leader Google Inc, sources familiar with the matter said. A tie-up with Google, seen as a big winner from the end of Microsoft-Yahoo talks, should help boost Yahoo's operating performance in the near term.

"It's time to get a move on with Google," said Jeffrey Lindsay, analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein. "Let's hope they weren't bluffing."

Yahoo is also still considering a deal with another Internet media and advertising major, such as Time Warner Inc's AOL, people familiar with the discussions said.

But Yang and the company he helped create could face a flood of shareholder lawsuits or other actions if nothing materializes.

"There are two things that could support the stock: the potential for Microsoft to return and the potential to do a Google deal," said Clayton Moran, analyst at Stanford Group.

Moran said Yahoo shares could fall to the mid- to low-$20 range on Monday from their $28.67 close last week. Other analysts said it could slip closer to $19.18, where it closed on January 31, a day before Microsoft made its offer public.

Microsoft shares are likely to rise on Monday, with its investors relieved that Chief Executive Steve Ballmer didn't shell out billions more for Yahoo, analysts said.

Microsoft on Saturday sweetened its initial $31-per-share offer for Yahoo to $33, but then withdrew from the talks when Yang dug in for a price of $37.

SHAREHOLDER CHALLENGE

While some Yahoo investors hoped it could wrest a price closer to $35 per share from Microsoft, a dissident shareholder said he would challenge Yang and the board over the collapse of talks.

"Shareholders didn't even get a chance to vote on the deal, but the board negotiated on our behalf and not in good faith," Eric Jackson, who leads a group of investors who collectively own 2 million Yahoo shares, told Reuters.

He said he would urge shareholders to withhold votes from the company's directors this year.

Yahoo officials were not immediately available to comment.

Bernstein's Lindsay estimates Yahoo could be worth up to $35 per share with a Google deal, and even $37 with more job cuts, but that drops to $25 per share if no partnerships are in the offing.

Yahoo has conducted tests with Google to outsource some of its search listings to its arch-rival. It has also held talks in tandem with AOL and Rupert Murdoch's News Corp.

A source familiar with the matter said on Sunday that the News Corp talks had cooled in recent weeks.

"It increasingly appears like Yahoo will pursue a Google search partnership," said Moran, who said he still favored a Microsoft buyout. "Given Google's position (in the market), a partnership with them cedes control and limits the long-term value creation for Yahoo."

BALLMER'S WARNING

Ballmer portrayed Yahoo's options as particularly stark in a letter to Yang detailing his reasons for pulling back, and suggested any Google tie-up would preclude a Microsoft deal.

Microsoft and Google are increasingly competing on the same turf, such as Web-based applications, email and messaging. The proposed Yahoo purchase was meant to create a fiercer rival to Google and challenge its hold on Internet advertising.

"The real winner in all of this seems to be Google," said Canaccord Adams analyst Colin Gillis. "There's going to be no powerful number two" in the Web market, he said.

Gillis rated Yahoo a "buy" with a $35 price target before the deal talks with Microsoft collapsed. "We were very clear that was not based on fundamentals," he said.

Ballmer also warned Yahoo that it would give up its relationship with advertisers by coordinating with Google and could lose some of its best engineering talent.

Some analysts disputed that idea, saying Yahoo's operating results would certainly benefit from a Google partnership.

Other Google partners, including IAC/Inter ActiveCorp's Ask.com, have structured deals that keep them in control of their advertiser ties, Bernstein's Lindsay said.